Career Search

Friday, March 28, 2014

Inflation effect on Savings

Download Tax Saving Mutual Fund Application Forms

Invest In Tax Saving Mutual Funds Online

Buy Gold Mutual Funds

Leave a missed Call on

94 8300 8300

 

Inflation cut 100 to 14 in 30 years



Inflation is often called the ‘silent killer’ because it significantly erodes the purchasing power of money over time. To establish a frame of reference, consider this: At 6.5% long-term WPI (wholesale price index) inflation in India, the purchasing power of Rs 100 has eroded to a dismal Rs 13.80 over the last 30 years! As time goes on, every rupee you have saved will buy you fewer and fewer goods or services — a scary thought indeed!


In search of ‘real’ returns


In general, conventional fixed income instruments in India have not provided investors with ‘real’ returns, that is, returns over and above inflation. Over the last 30 years, an investor who diligently invested in one-year bank fixed deposits (FDs) every year would have generated real returns of just 1.6% per annum on a pre-tax basis, which after taxes would be insignificant.


On the other hand, a real asset such as gold has generated higher real returns of approximately 3.3% per annum over the WPI inflation rate. It’s no wonder then that Indians have developed a strong affinity towards the yellow metal.


Over the same 30-year period, equity generated substantial real returns of approximately 8.45% per annum over the WPI inflation rate. However, this has been accomplished at the cost of significant volatility.


The lack of real returns in fixed income investment products has only enhanced the lure of the yellow metal, and its ever increasing imports have depleted our foreign exchange reserves.
Concerned with this phenomenon, in June 2013 RBI launched the ‘Inflation Indexed Bonds’ (IIBs). These are based on WPI as well as the consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate.


However, the latter is targeted only towards retail investors with a maximum investment limit of Rs 5 lakh, while the WPI series is targeted at institutional investors and HNIs and has no upper limit for investments in these instruments.


UK and US lead the way
Not surprisingly, such securities are very popular globally. The ‘inflation-linked’ securities originated in the UK in the 1980s, followed by other countries such as Australia and Canada. In the UK, these ‘Linkers’ account for approximately 22% of the t o t a l o u t - s t a n d - ing government debt. The US was a relatively late entrant in 1997 and the issuance of approximately $1 billion of TIPS (Treasury inflation protected securities) accounts for nearly 8% of the total government debt.


In India, we have only one security (1.44 IIGS 2023) with an issuance of Rs 6,500 crore, which is less than 0.20% of the total government debt of approximately Rs 35 lakh crore. The 1.44 IIGS presents an attractive value proposition for fixed income investors as it currently trades at a real yield of about 3.85%, which is higher than the past returns of gold. Given historical WPI inflation of approximately 6.7%, a similar bond issued 10 years earlier would have fetched investors a handsome 10%+ return on sovereign risk.


Expect Innovation around IIBs
Unfortunately, the financial services industry has been slow to catch on to the potential of the IIBs and we have hardly seen any product launches around it. Going forward, we expect innovative product construction to encourage investor participation in this space.


Imagine a fixed maturity plan (FMP) of a mutual fund buying these IIBs and holding them to maturity. Investors in such a fund will beat inflation handsomely, would not be concerned with interim volatility, and can enjoy the benefits of indexation as well. Similarly, imagine a children’s education plan that will beat Inflation significantly, thus protecting the real value of the corpus saved for the child’s bright future.


To summarize, IIBs are a low-risk, perfect hedge against inflation and must, therefore, be part of any long-term debt portfolio. The fact that they are currently trading at attractive levels is an icing on the cake and should encourage investors to participate in them.

For further information contact Prajna Capitalon 94 8300 8300 by leaving a missed call

Leave a missed Call on 94 8300 8300

Leave your comment with mail ID and we will answer them

OR

You can write back to us at

PrajnaCapital [at] Gmail [dot] Com

---------------------------------------------

Invest Mutual Funds Online

Invest Any Mutual Fund Online

Download Mutual Fund Application Forms from all AMCs

Download Mutual Any Fund Application Forms

---------------------------------------------

Best Performing Mutual Funds

    1. Largecap Funds Invest Online
      1. DSP BlackRock Top 100 Fund
      2. ICICI Prudential Focused Blue Chip Fund
      3. Franklin India Bluechip
      4. ICICI Prudential Top 100 Fund

B. Large and Midcap Funds Invest Online

      1. ICICI Prudential Dynamic Plan
      2. HDFC Top 200 Fund
      3. UTI Dividend Yield Fund
      4. Birla Sun Life Front Line Equity Fund
      5. Franklin India Prima

C. Mid and SmallCap Funds Invest Online

      1. Reliance Equity Opportunities Fund
      2. DSP BlackRock Small & Midcap Fund
      3. Sundaram Select Midcap
      4. IDFC Premier Equity Fund
      5. Birla Sun Life Dividend Yield Plus
      6. SBI Emerging Businesses Fund
      7. HDFC Mid-Cap Opportunities Fund
      8. ICICI Prudential Discovery Fund

D. Small and MicroCap FundsInvest Online

      1. DSP BlackRock MicroCap Fund

2.Franklin India Smaller Companies

E. Sector Funds Invest Online

      1. Reliance Banking Fund
      2. Reliance Banking Fund
      3. ICICI Prudential Banking and Financial Services Fund

F. Tax Saver Mutual Funds Invest Online

1. ICICI Prudential Tax Plan

2. HDFC Taxsaver

      1. DSP BlackRock Tax Saver Fund
      2. Reliance Tax Saver (ELSS) Fund

G. Gold Mutual Funds Invest Online

      1. Relaince Gold Savings Fund
      2. ICICI Prudential Regular Gold Savings Fund
      3. HDFC Gold Fund
      4. Birla Sun Life Gold

H. International funds Invest Online

1. Birla Sun Life International Equity Plan A

2. DSP BlackRock US Flexible Equity

3. FT India Feeder Franklin US Opportunities

4. ICICI Prudential US Bluechip Equity

5. Motilal Oswal MOSt Shares NASDAQ-100 ETF

No comments: