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Debt funds have given good returns in the past 3-6 months. If inflation is contained and the RBI goes for a rate cut, investors can expect handsome returns in the coming months.
Stocks have been in the spotlight following the BJP's landslide victory in the general elections. But even the debt securities have not done badly. In the past 3-6 months, debt funds have delivered handsome returns. A few long-term gilt funds have given more than 6% returns in the past 3 months. That's nearly 25% returns on an annulised basis. This spectacular performance comes after a year of poor returns.
The rise in bond yields have led the same long-term gilt funds to give very poor returns in the past 1 year
But good news may be in store for investors if the policy initiatives of the new government bear fruit. Experts say that if inflation is contained, they expect the Reserve Bank of India to cut interest rates. I would expect the new government's policies to drive down interest rates and, therefore, yields may come off by 100 bps in the next 12-18 months. If interest rates are cut, the value of the bonds in the porfolios of debt funds goes up, driving up their NAVs.
Interest rates are not yet conducive to support a turnaround in the investment cycle. These will eventually come off, but there is still some time Best performing debt funds away, An extended pause in interest rates is likely, as there are still looming concerns over inflation and a weak monsoon.
Interest rate scenario If the various bottlenecks in the Indian economy are addressed, the growth scenario is likely to improve. However, experts reckon that it will take some time for the economy to open up. And, more importantly, interest rates will play a major role in shaping this recovery. Interest rates are still at elevated levels However, if things fall in place, as expected, a downward trajectory in the country's interest rates will be a reality soon. If the new government takes the path towards fiscal consolidation and the inflation figure is also supportive, then the central bank will surely start slashing the key policy rates.
He says there will be a near 100 basis points cut in rates until the end of this financial year (March 2015). The bond market has priced in the improvement in the current account deficit situation as of now. At current yields of around 8.8%, most of the bad news has been priced in, but hardly any of the good news has been factored in.
Opportunity in debt funds This presents a big opportunity for debt fund investors. If investors choose wisely, debt funds could yield 9-10% returns in the coming year. The gains will be particularly strong in long duration bonds, which are more sensitive to interest rate changes. Long duration is where the action will take place. The maximum capital gains will come through this basket when interest rates come off. We are overweight in the longer duration instruments from a medium to long-term perspective Investors could, therefore, start taking positions in income funds and even gilt funds, if they are looking to invest for a 12-18-month period. However, for those looking at a time frame of less than a year, these funds may not be the best bet. If interest rates remain elevated for a pro longed time, then, obviously, long duration instruments will take a hit. That is why some experts, like are wait ing for some more clarity on inflation and government actions before recommending long duration funds. Shorter duration accrual funds should find favour for the time being as these exhibit lower volatility and are less sensitive to rate changes. She says investors with a shorter investing time horizon should remain in short-term debt funds, while those willing to withstand higher volatility could opt for long-duration funds. While the former will give stable returns, the latter could prove to be very volatile due to the changes in the interest rate scenario.
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