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What is the El Nino factor and how does it affect the Indian monsoon?
El Nino is a particular pattern of warming of the Pacific ocean water that leads to erratic rainfall in various parts of the world, sometimes leading to crop failure, drought, etc. The development of an El Nino-type situation in the Pacific often leads to a weaker monsoon in India, which may result in a higher food price inflation rate because of a fall in crop production and lower GDP growth. Last week, the Indian Meteorological Department said that there was a 60% chance of El Nino this year and that this year's monsoon in India is expected to be below normal. Economists are divided if this year's below-normal monsoon could lead to a spike in the prices of food and other agricultural commodities because of huge stockpiles of grain in government storage facilities. A below-normal monsoon often leads to a slide in the stock market mainly because of the fall in the GDP growth rate.
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